Fun With Math: Would Mo Have Won This Year's Windy City Pace?

Another exciting edition of the Windy City Pace took place last Friday at Maywood Park. The heavy favorite, On More Laugh, was knocked off in a near photo finish. Like last year, the #2 horse was bet down nearly as far as the favorite. Last year, that horse was Sheer Desire. This year, it was Razzle Dazzle. Also like last year, neither one of those favorites crossed the wire first. The upset wasn’t quite as dramatic as Aracache Hanover, a 4-1 horse who drew the rail, showed plenty of guts holding off On More Laugh for his Canadian driver (Doug McNair) and trainer (Doug’s father Gregg McNair). Congrats to the connections of Aracache Hanover. It was a lot of fun watching their excitement in the winners circle from our spot up in the clubhouse…now, it wasn’t nearly as fun as BEING IN the winner circle, but I feel like we understand just how special that experience is after our win last year.

There was another interesting part of the race that really reminded Danny and I of last year’s Windy City. The number 5 horse, Stonebridge Tonic, worked out a second over trip behind Razzle Dazzle and headed into the stretch in an eerily similar position to In Over My Head last year. Despite a nice finish, Stonebridge Tonic just didn’t have the same kick that In Over My Head did at the end. When looking at the lines, they don’t look that different. Mo’s last quarter in 2009 was 28.1, while Tonic’s was 28.2. However, a quick look at the replays tells a very different story. Take a look at the links below. Watch In Over My Head close in the stretch like he was shot out of a cannon and then watch Stonebridge Tonic.

2009 Windy City:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dspRHcIMsnA

2010 Windy City:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZiZ0lvmYWk

Watching those two video’s begged an interesting question: With the same trip Stonebridge Tonic got, would In Over My Head have won this year’s Windy City Pace?

The answer is below, but get ready, we have lots of fun with math. Put your thinking cap on.

To start with we need to establish some assumptions:

- The distance of the stretch at Maywood Park = 594 feet, which = 0.1125 miles
- In 2009, In Over My Head was charted as back 4 and ¾ lengths behind the leader, If I Can Dream, coming into the stretch (ie, with 594 feet to go).
- A ‘length’ in harness racing in an official race chart = approximately 10 feet (the approximate length of a horse and the race bike).
- We are going to assume that If I Can Dream traveled his last quarter mile in equal fashion, meaning that his 29.0 second last quarter equated to a 13.05 second time in the ‘stretch’. This assumption is somewhat up for discussion, but I will test this later.

Coming into the stretch, In Over My Head was trailing If I Can Dream by approximately 47.5 feet (4 and ¾ lengths at 10 feet per length). At the wire, he had beaten If I Can Dream by a head, which is equivalent to about 3 feet, meaning he made up approximately 50.5 feet in the last 594 feet of racetrack. This means Mo traveled that last distance 8.5% faster. Applying that percentage to If I Can Dream’s 13.05 second ‘stretch’ equates to Mo’s stretch time of 11.94 seconds.

Using those numbers, Mo traveled the last 594 feet at 49.75 feet per second, while IICD was moving at 45.51 feet per second. That is 4.23 feet per second times 13.05 seconds (again, that is IICD’s stretch time) means that Mo made up 55 feet. Considering he was down nearly 48 feet going into the stretch and won by about 3 feet, we have a pretty good case that those numbers are correct. If not perfect, they are close. The reality is that IICD probably came home slightly faster in the stretch than he did in the beginning of the last quarter. A champion horse like him would gut out some additional speed when being pushed at the end. If that was the case, it would shrink that 55 feet by a foot or two and the numbers would match up perfectly.

With that, let’s take a look at this year’s race.

Aracache Hanover’s last quarter last night was 28.2. Given that Mo’s was 28.1 you would think he would have no chance to make up that kind of ground, but go back to those replays. Mo’s final dash to the finish line may have been enough to get him here. Let’s go back to the numbers.

Again assuming a consistent last quarter for Aracache Hanover, his stretch time was 12.78 seconds (noticeably faster than If I Can Dream’s 13.05). That is 46.48 feet per second.

Stonebridge Tonic (the horse who had the 2nd over trip that we are replacing with Mo) was just 3 and 1/2 lengths behind Aracache Hanover as then came into the stretch, or approximately 35 feet. Using Mo’s stretch time of 49.75 feet per means he was covering an extra 3.27 feet each second. Take that over the last 12.78 seconds and Mo would have made up 41.8 feet in the stretch. Remember he was behind by 35 feet, which means that:

In Over My Head would have WON by 6.8 feet, or nearly three quarters of a length!

I understand that can be disputed, but it is WELL within reason to think that Mo would have at the very least been in the photo finish if he had Stonebridge Tonic’s trip. I’m not trying to prove he is better or worse than any of the horses in this year’s race, but just making the point that his last 594 feet in the 2009 Windy City Pace was insanely fast.

Here are some other interesting stats about the race and that stretch drive of Mo.

The 2009 Windy City Pace was completed in 1 minute and 52.4 seconds. That equates to an average speed of 32.03 miles per hour.

The fastest harness race ever was completed in 1 minutes and 47.4 seconds. That equates to an average speed of 33.5 mph.

In his stretch drive, In Over My Head was traveling at 33.93 mph. Not bad on a half mile track coming out of a turn on a cool November evening.

As Mo continues his slim fast diet down in Florida with John Butenschoen, I only hope that he can return to his old form. I can’t wait to see him unleash that final kick in those short half mile stretches at Yonkers, Maywood and other short tracks. If you ever get a chance to watch Mo race in the future, just remember that is isn’t over until they cross that finish line.