“Strength does not come from winning. Your struggles develop your strengths. When you go through hardships and decide not to surrender, that is strength.”
The quote above sounds as if it could be attributed to a famous author or world leader, but it came from none other than a famous bodybuilder, actor and governor. Since really only one person in history fits that description you could probably guess it was Arnold Schwarrzenegger. Like him or not, you don’t achieve what he has in life without passing along some words of wisdom along the way. It is that quote that I wanted to offer a quick pre race post.
Saturday night In Over My Head goes for win number six in a row. This run has been beyond thrilling for all of us at Team In Over My Head. I always remember when a member of the coaching staff at Madison Memorial, we would go on some great runs in the post season basketball tournament and as much as I wanted to reflect on what was happening I couldn’t. It is one of those things you can’t really appreciate until it is over and you look back. At some point, our streak will come to an end. Until then will go forward with every race and enjoy them to the fullest extent.
For a moment, though, I wanted to look back and take a snapshot of the big picture. What really makes this story of In Over My Head special is that he is so much more than just a race horse for us. He is a metaphor for our own lives and is an inspiration. We have all battled through life events over the time Mo has been a part of our lives and there will be more to come. In Over My Head went through his own struggles to get to where he is today. If you would ever talk to those who were closest to him during the toughest times, you’d realize they were not small struggles, but the type that would crush the spirit of most. Our own struggles can at times be just as bad, but much like Mo, our strength comes from never surrendering. Winning is the easy part, and God knows how much we want to keep winning, but whatever happens, the comeback to get to this point is something that we never will and never should forget.
To help remember how lucky we are to be here enjoy this link to a video Danny put together in March. It was from a night we finished 2nd, but ended up hurting himself during the race. With the backdrop of Eli Young’s ‘Keep On Dreaming’, we were just hoping for another chance to race. Luckily he did make it back and…
He hasn’t lost since.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzCMVzR2oOk&feature=plcp
While we will keep on dreaming, we also know we are living the dream right now. I never knew it was possible to be so proud of a horse, but that is the case here.
Now go out there and kick some ass!
Let’s Go Mo!
Friday, July 6, 2012
Tuesday, July 3, 2012
The New Normal
Here is a question for you: when do you know that you’ve reached a very unique and special place with a horse you own or are involved with? The answer: when winning starts to feel ‘normal’. By the grace of the horse racing gods, we find ourselves in that situation right now.
Saturday night, we all got a chance to enjoy what has become a typical In Over My Head race. Find his way to the front. Let someone take the lead on the backstreatch (like two weeks ago, it was Firstclassalltheway), sit 2nd until the open stretch and then just go by everyone. The only difference this week? He won by two full lengths in the fastest time of his career and crossed the wire with gas left in the tank. Apparently he was ready to pace another quarter mile. That’s our new normal and boy is it ever fun to watch.
Enjoy the video. Mo is again coming from post position #6. June 30th, race #2:
http://www.balmoralpark.com/Video.cfm?Cat=R
I’ve never been a part of a 5 race win streak and I can assure you they are quite rare no matter what level of racing you are involved in. So many things can go wrong in a race that a win can become a second or third place finish despite a great effort from the horse. We are benefiting GREATLY from having Marcus Miller in the bike each week. Team Miller-Mo are now up to 11 for 16 lifetime, which is almost an unrealistic win percentage (68.75%).
With all that wonderful information as a backdrop, I did have one question this week. Why did so many people pick against In Over My Head and why was he just an 8/5 favorite at post time? After that many wins, I kind of thought he would go off at around even odds. He had beaten a similar group 2 weeks in a row, but for whatever reason, the money ended up being pretty well spread out.
The question to many probably is ‘just how good is In Over My Head’? The fact is, there must be a fair amount of people out there that are not yet sold on him. In our eyes, he is basically an unstoppable force, but owners always have an unrealistic opinion of their own animal. It is hard not to. None the less, he obviously isn’t viewed as dominate racehorse in the eyes of the betting and handicapping public.
I put some thought into this and came up with some reasons why a person would think that way:
Easy trips – One quick look at the program and you could say he’s had some rather easy two hole trips. This is true, but he has made his own luck so to speak. He’s been able to get away easy and strike the lead, sit there and just outclose everyone. He’s so versatile he can create those easy trips.
Lack of jaw dropping time – I think this is a big one. Consider this: three of the other five horses in the race on Saturday had a faster lifetime mark than Mo. Two had sub 1.50 winning marks (Bet On Him and Firstclassalltheway). The #3 horse showed a 1.49.1 mile at the Meadowlands on June 9th. In Over My Head has never gone faster than 1.50.3 (a mark he equaled Saturday night). That time is pretty darn good, but certainly not anything that would stand out to a seasoned handicapper. This is kind of been a running joke for us going all the way back to his 3 year old season. Mo never goes any faster than he has to. Ever. He just follows Al Davis's famous 'just win baby' saying. Consider the following stats:
- He now has a 39% lifetime win percentage (18 for 47). This includes six starts in the Invitational and thirteen starts in stakes events. Eight of his wins have come at those high levels.
- If you throw out some obviously abnormal races, the stats get far better. Start by tossing races in which he made a break (four as a 2 year old, three as a 3 year old), where he got hurt (at 4) and his first couple last year coming off a 2 year layoff you have 36 ‘regular’ lifetime starts. Utilizing that number, his win percentage is a crisp 50%.
No matter which way you look at it, Mo has had a heck of a career against some very high level competition. So why no sub 1.50 mile in this day and age of speed? My conclusion is that Mo is a horse that has the patience and versatility to stalk and catch, almost never setting his own fractions and sitting bad to allow other horses to push the pace. Taking things to another level, when he does catch another horse, he slows down. It you watch his replays, you’ll see it time and time again. He’ll hit this stupid fast burst in mid stretch that closes a gap on a horse in a heartbeat. He’ll use that to get by them, then dial it back through the wire. I guess the way he sees it, there is no reason to work any harder than he has to.
So the question here is: Does Mo have a sub 1.50 mile in him? The answer is without a doubt yes. It is just going to have to set up right for him to chase a fast pacesetter. He won’t do it on his own. As an owner that wants to see him stay healthy, that’s 100% fine by me.
Name - This one may be the most interesting (and outlandish), but I am convinced that his name has a negative connotation to handicappers. Rollinglikeabigshot had won 5 in a row going into Saturday and was bet down to a 2-5 favorite. In Over My Head had won 4 in a row and was a tepid 8-5 favorite. Did name play a factor? You tell me! I have no idea how to obtain the information to try and prove this nor do I have the ability to run the analysis (but my wife Laura does!) so for now we can just have fun talking about it.
Uncertainly surrounding lack of starts the last 3 years – This one I think is kind of legit, but may have seen its end after this week now that he has strung a few good races in a row together. If I’m a handicapper and I’m looking at his lifetime numbers, I see 3 starts as a 4 year old, seven at 5 and now six at 6. What’s going on? Can this horse hold it together? You fine loyal readers of this blog all know the answer to that (yes is the answer), but we have had plenty of question marks over the years. As of now, Mo’s healthy as a horse and I hope it stays that way for a long time.
In conclusion, there are a number of factors that put question marks on Mo, but the more he wins, the more they will just disappear. He is all set to go again on Saturday at Balmoral and I'm sure will face another group of tough competitors. The draw comes out on Wednesday, so we just hope he gets in. If he does, we plan on bringing a crew down to cheer him on and hopefully keep the 'new normal' experience going.
Let's Go Mo! We are all very proud of you!
Saturday night, we all got a chance to enjoy what has become a typical In Over My Head race. Find his way to the front. Let someone take the lead on the backstreatch (like two weeks ago, it was Firstclassalltheway), sit 2nd until the open stretch and then just go by everyone. The only difference this week? He won by two full lengths in the fastest time of his career and crossed the wire with gas left in the tank. Apparently he was ready to pace another quarter mile. That’s our new normal and boy is it ever fun to watch.
Enjoy the video. Mo is again coming from post position #6. June 30th, race #2:
http://www.balmoralpark.com/Video.cfm?Cat=R
I’ve never been a part of a 5 race win streak and I can assure you they are quite rare no matter what level of racing you are involved in. So many things can go wrong in a race that a win can become a second or third place finish despite a great effort from the horse. We are benefiting GREATLY from having Marcus Miller in the bike each week. Team Miller-Mo are now up to 11 for 16 lifetime, which is almost an unrealistic win percentage (68.75%).
With all that wonderful information as a backdrop, I did have one question this week. Why did so many people pick against In Over My Head and why was he just an 8/5 favorite at post time? After that many wins, I kind of thought he would go off at around even odds. He had beaten a similar group 2 weeks in a row, but for whatever reason, the money ended up being pretty well spread out.
The question to many probably is ‘just how good is In Over My Head’? The fact is, there must be a fair amount of people out there that are not yet sold on him. In our eyes, he is basically an unstoppable force, but owners always have an unrealistic opinion of their own animal. It is hard not to. None the less, he obviously isn’t viewed as dominate racehorse in the eyes of the betting and handicapping public.
I put some thought into this and came up with some reasons why a person would think that way:
Easy trips – One quick look at the program and you could say he’s had some rather easy two hole trips. This is true, but he has made his own luck so to speak. He’s been able to get away easy and strike the lead, sit there and just outclose everyone. He’s so versatile he can create those easy trips.
Lack of jaw dropping time – I think this is a big one. Consider this: three of the other five horses in the race on Saturday had a faster lifetime mark than Mo. Two had sub 1.50 winning marks (Bet On Him and Firstclassalltheway). The #3 horse showed a 1.49.1 mile at the Meadowlands on June 9th. In Over My Head has never gone faster than 1.50.3 (a mark he equaled Saturday night). That time is pretty darn good, but certainly not anything that would stand out to a seasoned handicapper. This is kind of been a running joke for us going all the way back to his 3 year old season. Mo never goes any faster than he has to. Ever. He just follows Al Davis's famous 'just win baby' saying. Consider the following stats:
- He now has a 39% lifetime win percentage (18 for 47). This includes six starts in the Invitational and thirteen starts in stakes events. Eight of his wins have come at those high levels.
- If you throw out some obviously abnormal races, the stats get far better. Start by tossing races in which he made a break (four as a 2 year old, three as a 3 year old), where he got hurt (at 4) and his first couple last year coming off a 2 year layoff you have 36 ‘regular’ lifetime starts. Utilizing that number, his win percentage is a crisp 50%.
No matter which way you look at it, Mo has had a heck of a career against some very high level competition. So why no sub 1.50 mile in this day and age of speed? My conclusion is that Mo is a horse that has the patience and versatility to stalk and catch, almost never setting his own fractions and sitting bad to allow other horses to push the pace. Taking things to another level, when he does catch another horse, he slows down. It you watch his replays, you’ll see it time and time again. He’ll hit this stupid fast burst in mid stretch that closes a gap on a horse in a heartbeat. He’ll use that to get by them, then dial it back through the wire. I guess the way he sees it, there is no reason to work any harder than he has to.
So the question here is: Does Mo have a sub 1.50 mile in him? The answer is without a doubt yes. It is just going to have to set up right for him to chase a fast pacesetter. He won’t do it on his own. As an owner that wants to see him stay healthy, that’s 100% fine by me.
Name - This one may be the most interesting (and outlandish), but I am convinced that his name has a negative connotation to handicappers. Rollinglikeabigshot had won 5 in a row going into Saturday and was bet down to a 2-5 favorite. In Over My Head had won 4 in a row and was a tepid 8-5 favorite. Did name play a factor? You tell me! I have no idea how to obtain the information to try and prove this nor do I have the ability to run the analysis (but my wife Laura does!) so for now we can just have fun talking about it.
Uncertainly surrounding lack of starts the last 3 years – This one I think is kind of legit, but may have seen its end after this week now that he has strung a few good races in a row together. If I’m a handicapper and I’m looking at his lifetime numbers, I see 3 starts as a 4 year old, seven at 5 and now six at 6. What’s going on? Can this horse hold it together? You fine loyal readers of this blog all know the answer to that (yes is the answer), but we have had plenty of question marks over the years. As of now, Mo’s healthy as a horse and I hope it stays that way for a long time.
In conclusion, there are a number of factors that put question marks on Mo, but the more he wins, the more they will just disappear. He is all set to go again on Saturday at Balmoral and I'm sure will face another group of tough competitors. The draw comes out on Wednesday, so we just hope he gets in. If he does, we plan on bringing a crew down to cheer him on and hopefully keep the 'new normal' experience going.
Let's Go Mo! We are all very proud of you!
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