Fun With Math: Would Mo Have Won This Year's Windy City Pace?

Another exciting edition of the Windy City Pace took place last Friday at Maywood Park. The heavy favorite, On More Laugh, was knocked off in a near photo finish. Like last year, the #2 horse was bet down nearly as far as the favorite. Last year, that horse was Sheer Desire. This year, it was Razzle Dazzle. Also like last year, neither one of those favorites crossed the wire first. The upset wasn’t quite as dramatic as Aracache Hanover, a 4-1 horse who drew the rail, showed plenty of guts holding off On More Laugh for his Canadian driver (Doug McNair) and trainer (Doug’s father Gregg McNair). Congrats to the connections of Aracache Hanover. It was a lot of fun watching their excitement in the winners circle from our spot up in the clubhouse…now, it wasn’t nearly as fun as BEING IN the winner circle, but I feel like we understand just how special that experience is after our win last year.

There was another interesting part of the race that really reminded Danny and I of last year’s Windy City. The number 5 horse, Stonebridge Tonic, worked out a second over trip behind Razzle Dazzle and headed into the stretch in an eerily similar position to In Over My Head last year. Despite a nice finish, Stonebridge Tonic just didn’t have the same kick that In Over My Head did at the end. When looking at the lines, they don’t look that different. Mo’s last quarter in 2009 was 28.1, while Tonic’s was 28.2. However, a quick look at the replays tells a very different story. Take a look at the links below. Watch In Over My Head close in the stretch like he was shot out of a cannon and then watch Stonebridge Tonic.

2009 Windy City:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dspRHcIMsnA

2010 Windy City:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZiZ0lvmYWk

Watching those two video’s begged an interesting question: With the same trip Stonebridge Tonic got, would In Over My Head have won this year’s Windy City Pace?

The answer is below, but get ready, we have lots of fun with math. Put your thinking cap on.

To start with we need to establish some assumptions:

- The distance of the stretch at Maywood Park = 594 feet, which = 0.1125 miles
- In 2009, In Over My Head was charted as back 4 and ¾ lengths behind the leader, If I Can Dream, coming into the stretch (ie, with 594 feet to go).
- A ‘length’ in harness racing in an official race chart = approximately 10 feet (the approximate length of a horse and the race bike).
- We are going to assume that If I Can Dream traveled his last quarter mile in equal fashion, meaning that his 29.0 second last quarter equated to a 13.05 second time in the ‘stretch’. This assumption is somewhat up for discussion, but I will test this later.

Coming into the stretch, In Over My Head was trailing If I Can Dream by approximately 47.5 feet (4 and ¾ lengths at 10 feet per length). At the wire, he had beaten If I Can Dream by a head, which is equivalent to about 3 feet, meaning he made up approximately 50.5 feet in the last 594 feet of racetrack. This means Mo traveled that last distance 8.5% faster. Applying that percentage to If I Can Dream’s 13.05 second ‘stretch’ equates to Mo’s stretch time of 11.94 seconds.

Using those numbers, Mo traveled the last 594 feet at 49.75 feet per second, while IICD was moving at 45.51 feet per second. That is 4.23 feet per second times 13.05 seconds (again, that is IICD’s stretch time) means that Mo made up 55 feet. Considering he was down nearly 48 feet going into the stretch and won by about 3 feet, we have a pretty good case that those numbers are correct. If not perfect, they are close. The reality is that IICD probably came home slightly faster in the stretch than he did in the beginning of the last quarter. A champion horse like him would gut out some additional speed when being pushed at the end. If that was the case, it would shrink that 55 feet by a foot or two and the numbers would match up perfectly.

With that, let’s take a look at this year’s race.

Aracache Hanover’s last quarter last night was 28.2. Given that Mo’s was 28.1 you would think he would have no chance to make up that kind of ground, but go back to those replays. Mo’s final dash to the finish line may have been enough to get him here. Let’s go back to the numbers.

Again assuming a consistent last quarter for Aracache Hanover, his stretch time was 12.78 seconds (noticeably faster than If I Can Dream’s 13.05). That is 46.48 feet per second.

Stonebridge Tonic (the horse who had the 2nd over trip that we are replacing with Mo) was just 3 and 1/2 lengths behind Aracache Hanover as then came into the stretch, or approximately 35 feet. Using Mo’s stretch time of 49.75 feet per means he was covering an extra 3.27 feet each second. Take that over the last 12.78 seconds and Mo would have made up 41.8 feet in the stretch. Remember he was behind by 35 feet, which means that:

In Over My Head would have WON by 6.8 feet, or nearly three quarters of a length!

I understand that can be disputed, but it is WELL within reason to think that Mo would have at the very least been in the photo finish if he had Stonebridge Tonic’s trip. I’m not trying to prove he is better or worse than any of the horses in this year’s race, but just making the point that his last 594 feet in the 2009 Windy City Pace was insanely fast.

Here are some other interesting stats about the race and that stretch drive of Mo.

The 2009 Windy City Pace was completed in 1 minute and 52.4 seconds. That equates to an average speed of 32.03 miles per hour.

The fastest harness race ever was completed in 1 minutes and 47.4 seconds. That equates to an average speed of 33.5 mph.

In his stretch drive, In Over My Head was traveling at 33.93 mph. Not bad on a half mile track coming out of a turn on a cool November evening.

As Mo continues his slim fast diet down in Florida with John Butenschoen, I only hope that he can return to his old form. I can’t wait to see him unleash that final kick in those short half mile stretches at Yonkers, Maywood and other short tracks. If you ever get a chance to watch Mo race in the future, just remember that is isn’t over until they cross that finish line.

Windy City Memory

Life is pretty busy right now. Work has picked up, we started practice at the high school where I coach basketball, wedding planning continues and the holiday’s are just around the corner. Regardless, I find some time everyday to check on the ins and outs of harness racing. Two states where we race (Illinois and New Jersey) are in battles over new legislation that would allow either slots at the racetracks or in the case of the Meadowlands, allow racing at all. My take on that is simple. If you are a state that allows gambling, there is no reason you should try and stop a slots at the track bill. If you don’t believe in ANY gambling, I can respect that as well…it is a totally different argument. However, in states where gambling exists, slots at tracks generates more gambling revenue, costs the taxpayers nothing and supports and entire sub-industry of horse racing that creates thousands of jobs, often in rural areas. It also encourages out of state investment and what state wouldn’t want out of staters pumping money into their industries? The ONLY reason to stop something like that is if you are in bed with the casinos or just totally against gambling of any kind. That’s it. It is a damn shame to watch the sputtering political process. Let’s forget about those issues just for a second and flashback a year.

Last year everything was very different. While there were other things going on, the focus was more directed toward one thing: The Windy City Pace.

Greg, Danny and I were cautiously optimistic about In Over My Head’s chances in the week leading up to the Windy City. We liked his post position (#3) and were confident veteran driver Dale Hiteman could carve out a good trip for him. With a purse of $225,000, fifth place would lead to a payday of $11,250 and take Mo over the $100,000 mark for the year. Not too shabby. I distinctly remember taking little pieces of paper with horses names on them and sliding them around my desk trying to simulate possible scenarios of how the race could break down. I was pretty sure that Mo would get shuffled back and be out of the money coming into the stretch. However, we knew his closing kick was fast…especially on a half mile track since he can go from 80% speed to 100% speed in a heartbeat on that short home stretch. I thought it would be enough to get in for 5th…MAYBE even 4th. The stretch goal was third. That would have been incredible.

Well, we were right about one thing. He did use his rocket fire finishing kick that night, but after Hiteman worked out a second over trip, he wasn’t fighting for fifth. He was closing on the leaders and when he crossed the wire just a nose in front of Sheer Desire, he had delivered us a once in a lifetime memory.

The full story that I wrote the day after can be found here. It still gives me goose bumps:

http://inovermyheadracehorse.blogspot.com/2009/11/o-my-godi-think-he-just-won-it.html

There are so many parts to the story of that are fun to remember, but one that has been coming to me in recent days takes us all the way back to when In Over My Head was just two. I went down to Maywood one night to watch him race in a simple little non winners of 2 conditioned race. I was only a small owner at that time through John Butenschoen’s partnership. Greg and I didn’t buy him together until about three months later at an auction. As fate would have it, Danny planned to head down that night too as one of Greg’s horses was also racing that night. What better way to spend a night than heading down to Maywood with Danny and talking horses for the 4 + hour car ride? At that time, Mo (who wasn’t known as Mo yet), was struggling with making a lot of breaks. As it turned out, he was just having some growing and maturity issues, but we didn’t know that at the time. In one of his warmup trips, John brushed him past the grandstand at full speed. He wanted to test him a bit before the race given his recent problems. I vividly remember standing on the rail that night with no one around but Danny and I. In Over My Head looked awesome and in that short stretch of racetrack displayed incredible speed. “Damn he’s fast” I thought at the time.

About 14 months later, on Windy City Pace night in 2009, he was even faster over that exact same stretch of racetrack. He needed every ounce of that speed to win the race. The only thing faster that night was our group charging down to the winner’s circle. I’m pretty sure we would have even left Mo in the dust.

That night, Greg, Danny, Kacy, Laura, my brother Kirk, Laura’s brother Ryan and wife Jamie got to take in the experience of having our 55-1 long shot win. It was so much fun, we decided to go back this year. Even though we don’t have a horse racing, what better way to remember that night than to be at the track? I wish everyone racing in this year’s Windy City Pace the best of luck. Can lightening strike twice? I don’t know…that would mean One More Laugh (a horse the quality of If I Can Dream) would have to get upset.

In that magical #3 post position is a horse named Voomerang. His stats are strikingly similar to In Over My Head’s last year. I’m sure he’ll be a long shot. I’m also sure I’ll put a couple buck down on him to win.

The Comeback Begins

Welcome back to the old blog. We aren't done here...not by a long shot (pun intended). As we speak, In Over My Head is enjoying a warm late fall evening at the beautiful Southern Oaks Trainng Center just north of Orlando, FL. As you can see in the picture, it is a wonderful place for a horse to spend the winter months. From what I understand, Mo didn't want to get on the trailer to head down (maybe he knew it was a 24 hour trip), but I'm sure when he go there he realized we sent him to a great place.

Before he left, Mo got a chance to hit the track down at Butenschoen's in Marengo, IL with Tyler in the training bike. To say he was a kid in a candy store would be quite an understatement. Apparently, he was throwing his head, turning around and doing a lot of 'talking'. I'm not exactlay sure what he sounds like when he's talking, but had I known he was going to put on a show I would have skipped out of work to watch those jog miles.

Now that we are back, I plan to put together more posts again (and longer ones than this), but I just wanted to check in and let the couple of loyal readers we have that Mo is OK...actually he is far better than OK, he's back jogging again and I'm sure he couldn't be happier.

A Thought Provoking Picture

A picture, as they say, is sometimes worth a thousand words. The picture to the left may not be worth that many, but I keep looking at it and thinking about the symbolism. I took this picture of In Over My Head last Sunday at his current home in Mineral Point. Laura and I went up with Greg for one of his daily feedings. While we stood there watching him, he paused and looked out of his barn door. Since I’m always looking for good pictures of Mo, I thought it might make a good phone background. The more I look at it the more intriguing it is.

(a quick side note, the plan was to take the picture from my phone and copy it here, but due to some kind of glitch, it has been 'erased' even though it still shows up as my background....which is why you get to see a picture of a picture!)

Behind him, is darkness, which represents the past seven months of his life. Major injury, weeks of stall rest and visits by vets, pain in his leg followed by minimal activity, more vets, and some remaining pain. After additional slow rehab work, he finally gets to the point he is now. Kind of in purgatory. Life certainly isn’t bad up at his Mineral Point home. He gets excellent care and attention (Greg goes up to feed him three times a day), he gets a big stall to himself every night and gets turned out every day. Has his own paddock with an open barn area as well (as seen in the picture). Certainly many horses have it worse, but this isn’t the best life for Mo. After all, he is a racehorse. He lives to race. Taking away racing would be like taking away football from Brett Favre (he obviously struggles with walking away). My favorite part of the picture is what is in front of him. In Over My Head is looking to a brighter future both actually (in the picture) and figuratively. His leg has finally healed, which will allow him to move forward into that bright future.

As of today, he is less than two months away from taking his next big step back to the track. We are planning on sending him down to Florida to train with John Butenschoen this winter. If all goes well, he’ll be back racing in April. To those that have read this blog for awhile, you may remember that we told In Over My Head on the night of the Windy City pace that if he won, we’d send him to Florida for the winter. Well, we are going to end up making good on that promise after all. By sending him to Florida, we can say he is getting the best possible path back into racing. We all hope beyond hope that he makes it back to the track and is the monster that he used to be. He deserves the best, which is why he is getting the ‘Cadillac Package’.

It is kind of an interesting time to look back. Had Mo stayed healthy, we would all probably be heading down to Delaware, Ohio, home of the Little Brown Jug. The Jug is the most special of the major three year old events (in my opinion at least). It is raced at a fair track, in front of a huge crowd (they usually draw 30,000+) and it is raced in heats. Heat racing was the norm for many, many years in racing. In summary, you have to win twice in one day to be crowned ‘champion’. It is a true test of a horse’s heart and guts. While In Over My Head would not be able to race in the Jug, we did plan on racing him in the Winbak Open pace. The purse isn’t huge (about $45k), but the chance to race on Jug day was something we were extremely excited about when Mo was healthy and we started to make stakes payments in mid February. Looking at the field, he would have fit just fine. He has already raced against 3 of the 5 participants. He got beat a nose by Nob Hill High in DuQuoin, went 1 for 2 against Annieswesterncard and could have held his own against Booze Crusin had he not been sick that night last fall in the open at Balmoral. I guess we will just have to try again next year.

In other news, Showtime Shark is probably a couple of weeks from getting back jogging again. We still aren’t too sure what his short term future holds, mostly because of the uncertainly surrounding the Meadowlands racetrack, which is currently in the middle of a turf battle for the future of gambling dollars with Atlantic City. The State of New Jersey is trying to figure out what location to support going forward. I’m obviously biased, but on one hand, you have the premier track in all of racing and in the other you have an afterthought grouping of casinos. You have brand awareness in the Meadowlands and a punch line in Atlantic City. Horse owners, trainers and breeders spend millions and million of dollars in New Jersey for horses because of the Meadowland’s brand, but casino gambling has become more and more a business of convenience given the fact there are casinos in nearly every state. Only Las Vegas remains a gambling destination. Long story short, if New Jersey wants to keep people like me spending money on horses, vets, trainers and when we come to visit hotel, restaurants, rental cars, etc, go with the Meadowladns. This falls into the realm of ‘no brainer’ as far as I’m concerned. Again, I know I’m biased. So, long story short, if there is a Junior Trendsetter next year, we will enter Showtime and probably travel to New Jersey to see him. I hope it works out.

Lastly, please join me in an Internet based round of applause for ‘Dashing’ Danny Carey. Danny just finished his first full year as a driver on the Wisconsin Fair Circuit and finished in the top three of drivers while also driving the Trotter of the Year. Nice work Danny! Maybe someday when we all run into the winner’s circle after an In Over My Head win we can congratulate him as our winning driver.

Mo Carrots for Mo

Although our time was short, Laura and I got a chance to stop up and see In Over My Head this week. We made a quick stop at the local Mineral Point grocery store and bought a bag of carrots before we headed up to the horse barn. He was standing outside eating some grass right on the fence when we arrived. Laura was excited to be able to feed him some carrots, but she didn’t have a ton of experience and I will admit that a horse can be a little bit intimidating when you aren’t used to it. Mo, who has a tendency to be a little nippy, was pretty relaxed that day. However, he wasn’t relaxed enough for Laura who ended up going 0 for 2 in attempting to give Mo a little treat. Both times she pulled her hand back as he got close and dropped the carrot on the ground. Overall, it was a decent first effort and I picked up all of the dropped carrots and fed them to Mo. I wish I would have taken a couple of pictures. Maybe next time.

Speaking of 0 for 2, Showtime Shark (aka See-knee), is no longer one nut short of a pair. He is two short. Last week, we decided to have the rather wild youngster gelded. It is far from an uncommon practice for racehorses, but you can’t help but feel a little bad for him when the procedure is first done. We found him a great farm to be turned out to about an hour from Pocono Downs. The people are extremely nice and we are confident he is getting excellent care as he just grows up a little bit. We fully think that come mid October, he will be ready to start training again and will be on his way to starting a very good career.

Back to In Over My Head for a bit. Our plan is to get his leg scanned one more time, but we are virtually certain that he is fully healed at this point. Either way, he will have another month and a half at Greg’s place before we would do anything with him, but he is getting VERY CLOSE to being able to start jogging again. The thought of that is beyond exciting for us. It has been a long six and a half months since his injury, but we can at least see the next step (and a very important one) in his overall rehab coming into focus. All of the thoughts of what can maybe happen next season on the racetrack are starting to creep back into our heads with him. You try and beat them back for fear of getting too excited, but it is very hard to do. All we can do is hope and pray that his body holds up when he comes back. If it does, we may be the happiest group owners that harness racing has ever seen.

Next, Fox Valley Nala, a 2 year old Illinois bred filly got her first lifetime win a couple of weeks ago. Marcus Miller drove her to perfection as he got her a two hole trip and patiently waited to make his move in the open stretch. She ended up winning by a nose. She has had an up and down season, but it sure was nice to see one of my horses back in the winner’s circle.

And last but not least, a big thumbs up to Danny, who is making a name for himself on the Wisconsin fair circuit as a driver this year. He is learning the ups and downs of being a driver, but has had a couple of weekends where he got horses good trips with great results (two wins and a second in three drives being a highlight). Keep it up Danny…maybe you can drive Mo in the coming years!

A Nice and Needed Visit

I think there is a simple equation when it comes to blogs. Lots of posts = more viewers. Few posts = few viewers. If you stop writing no one will come back and check the blog. While I don’t want to lose everyone, I have to be honest….I’ve had at least a mild case of writers block lately. When things were going well, there was a strong wind in my writing sail. Heck, even when things went horrible, I felt compelled to write about them. Now, I feel like Tommy Callahan (big Tom Callahan’s son), sitting in my little boat in the middle of a lake somewhere near Sandusky, Ohio. Lots of time to sail, but no wind.

The problem is…well…there isn’t a lot write talk about. We were hitching our wagon (or our sulky I should say) to Showtime Shark this year. The 2 year old colt was training down very well and had actually got to the point of having two quality qualifiers. He was ripping off 56 second last half training miles at Pocono by himself. He’s fast…but his body isn’t keeping up to the rigors of training. He was kind of a late developing horse and he just needs more time to mature. We came to that realization last week and it was kind of a tough blow to the psyche (at least for me) as it more or less solidified the fact there will be no racing for Greg and my (and Danny’s) colts in 2010. Mo got three races in (and won two). Showtime won’t get any. It is a bit of a bummer no matter how you slice it.

Danny and I were discussing all of this the other night after our softball game and he had a good idea: go see In Over My Head. It had been a number of weeks since my last trip to Mineral Point to see him. Danny thought it would cheer me up. So, I snuck away for a bit of a long lunch today. I first stopped by to see Greg, then Grandma and Grandpa and it was great to catch up with everyone. When I got to the horse barn he wasn’t out side. It was kind of a hot, sunny day and he was back in the shed that opens to his paddock. After some coaxing, he came out to meet me on the fence and I gave him a few carrots. Laura couldn’t make it, but she wanted me to give Mo carrots ‘from her’ which I did. We had a nice talk (I did most of the talking) as we walked along the fence line and I tried to keep the flies off his face. After awhile he headed back to the shed so he could be in the shade. He is a very social horse. Incredibly kind and easy to deal with for a stud colt. And he still looks like a champ. He is the Champ.

I’ve been thinking a lot about In Over My Head lately. Last weekend I went to visit Brien DuRoche a good friend from back in high school who lives up in Minneapolis. He asked a lot of questions about In Over My Head and I rambled on for way too long I’m sure, but jogged my brain to recount all of the little nuances and strange happenings that have surrounded our time with Mo. The number of strange occurrences was kind of overwhelming…even I had forgotten about them over the past weeks and months (maybe I should read my own blog). It was fun to think back and was as if there was something bigger than us at work with this story, which quite frankly is what made it a good story.

As I drove away from Mineral Point and headed back to Madison I felt better. It was nice to see everyone today even if it was a short trip…and I got to feed Mo some carrots. I pulled onto the highway and turned up the radio, but the song that was on wasn’t any good. Apparently I had left the radio on a channel that I don’t listen to very often. I changed it to a more familiar station and was put back in my chair with what I heard. That familiar song that wasn’t written at all with Mo in mind. For us, however, it fits him like a glove for obvious reasons. I turned up the volume as The Frey belted out “Everyone knows I’m in over my head.” I can’t make this stuff up! I realize it is probably just a coincidence, but right when I get on the highway? On the day I went to visit after Danny said, “you should go pay Mo a visit.” Say what you will, I think it’s at least somewhat weird that of all the songs I could have come across, it is his unofficial theme song.

In the short term, I really don’t have a ton to write about, but I’ll do my best. There is a new wind back in my sails. We may be down, but we aren’t out. There is more to come with team In Over My Head (this now officially includes his sidekick Showtime Shark). When we look down the road, we can still only see a few more months of downtime. It looks pretty flat, straight and boring to be honest. However, I think something more is on the horizon…a lot more and I can’t wait to be able to write about it.

Also, the pictures that I’ve put in this were taken by Danny a couple of weeks ago of In Over My Head up at his place in Mineral Point. I thought you might enjoy a few more of the Champ.

FINALLY It's Race Day

Race Day. After 130 long days, Fox Valley Nala (the unofficial daughter of In Over My Head since I only bought a partial ownership after Mo won us a suitcase full of cash in the Windy City Pace) is making her first lifetime start at Maywood Park in a $7,000 ICF 2 year old filly event tonight. We almost got a chance to see a double header, as Showtime Shark was scheduled to make his first lifetime start today as well, but he is a little bit dinged up (nothing major thankfully), so we had to scratch him for today. The youngster has had a bit of a rough go of it early. In two qualifiers, he has been impeded BOTH times. In both situations, he managed to stay pacing (including last week when he had to sweep about 8 wide around the breaker). Impressive composure for the rookie. We really have high hopes for him. He’s smart and fast…usually a good combination.

While we may not be able to watch Showtime together tonight, Greg, Danny and I are heading down to the old South Beloit betting parlor to take in the races and win lots of money (or donate to the purse account). Race day used to mean a longer trek. As a kid when staying with Grandma and Grandpa, we’d meet Greg in mid afternoon and load up the car with sandwiches and coolers of Coke before heading down to Sportsmen’s Park. It was such a cool experience. Rolling into the track in the big city of Chicago with Grandpa and Greg made you feel like a big deal, especially on the occasions when the horse would win and we’d get to head down to the winner circle. Now, with all of the off track betting, those trips are always necessary. Even though we won’t end up at the track itself tonight, it is still Race Day. I’m just glad it is finally here…it’s been too damn long.

And this wouldn’t be an update without some news on the Champ. He is enjoying his time up in Mineral Point, but from what I’m told, he’d rather be in training than running around in a paddock. He’s very full of himself and while he’s living the easy life right now, the easy life isn’t what makes In Over My Head tick. His leg continues to heal wonderfully. When I was up last time I got a chance to feel it myself. I’m not a vet, but it basically felt exactly the same as his healthy leg…I’m pretty sure that’s good news!

Over the last few weeks, I have really been drawn to Shark Gesture. As far as I’m concerned, he is, at this point in his career, as good as any free for aller in the past 10 years. I’m not saying he could go on a crazy win streak against the likes of Mr. Big, Artistic Fella, Art Official, Real Desire, Four Starzzz Shark, Holborn Hanover and so on, but in his current form he could race with and beat ANYONE on any given night. So, I pick up the mail yesterday and guess who is on the front cover of Hoof Beats: Shark Gesture. I start to read the article and come to realize that during his four year old season, he tore his suspensory. I had no idea that happened to him. After a year or so of trying a 2nd career in the breeding shed, they brought him back to the track and he became an even greater racehorse than he already was. I tell you what, it is stories like that that help keep me positive. Now, I’m not saying Mo will come back and be Shark Gesture, all we want is for him to come back the way he was and if Shark Gesture is any kind of proxy, he can. Unfortunately for In Over My Head, he doesn’t get to spend his time away from the track going on ‘dates’ with a bunch of mares. Sorry buddy, if you come back strong, we promise to find you some pretty ladies to breed with.